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Can statistical probability (rov) establish legal reality when a child of unknown origin (tinok mushlach) is found? The shiur develops the yesod that rov cannot change essential identity - a Jew remains a Jew regardless of demographics. This distinction between factual determination and behavioral permission resolves the tension between rov and chezkas mamon.
This shiur analyzes Kesubos 13a's discussion of tinok mushlach (a foundling child of unknown origin) and the application of rov (majority status) in determining legal obligations. The Gemara (גמרא) presents a case where there's uncertainty whether the child is Jewish or non-Jewish based on the local demographic majority, with implications for monetary obligations in damage cases. Rabbi Zweig frames the fundamental question: Does rov create a legal determination (psak) about the child's identity, or does it merely provide guidance for how we may act? The Tosafos (תוספות) and Rambam (רמב"ם) seem to indicate that when there's rov Yisrael, one must pay full damages, but this creates a difficulty with the principle of "ein hochan mamon achar rov" (we don't extract money based on majority alone when there's a chezkas mamon).
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Kesubos 13a
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